COVID-19 Fatality Rate formula based on available Data with and without lockdown

Note: this is personal opinion and based on publicly available data. It is not medically proven, but with a background in mathemetics and observing the (small amount of) existing data, I see the following observations. 


Based on the data of number of fatalities of China and Italy while not being locked down, shows that the daily exponential factor is approximately 1.35 starting when number of fatalities is already larger than 5.

   #Fatalities_nextDay = #Fatalities_Daybefore*1,35   (without measures in place)

That means that every day number of deceased increases with 1.35 x [number of fatalities previous day] without any strong measurements in place.

Day
#Fatalities
Factor
Italy # Fatalities since 26 Feb 2020


1,35
1


2


3
1
7
7
2
9
11
3
13
12
4
17
17
5
23
21
6
31
29
7
42
41
8
57
52
9
77
79
10
104
107
11
141
148
12
190
197
13
257
233
14
346
366
15
467
463
16
631
631




After enforced strict lockdown, numbers will decrease with the following formula based on data from China:

    #Fatalities_nextDay = # Fatalities_Daybefore+ Log(x,230)*#Fatalities_Daybefore
                                                                                                           (with strict lockdown in place)

where using a log function with base 230 and x is number of days from today.


Day
#Fatalities
Factor
China # Fatalities since 18 Feb 2020

2004
230
1
2004
2004
2
2259
2118
3
2409
2236
4
2515
2345
5
2597
2442
6
2664
2592
7
2721
2663
8
2770
2715
9
2814
2744
10
2853
2788
11
2888
2835
12
2920
2870
13
2949
2912
14
2977
2943
15
3002
2981
16
3026
3012
17
3048
3042
18
3069
3070
19
3089
3097
20
3108
3119
21
3126
3136
22
3143
3158
23
3159
3169
24
3175
3176
25
3190
3189


Again, I want to emphasize this is only based on data publicly available and not medically proven.

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